The likelihood that President Donald Trump will face a third impeachment before the end of 2026 has risen from 5% to 15% on the betting exchange Polymarket after the release of further emails linked to Jeffrey Epstein.
More than 20,000 pages of documents were published by the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday. The cache contains messages in which Epstein claims Mr Trump “knew about the girls” and once asked Ghislaine Maxwell to “stop”. Epstein also refers to Mr Trump as “that dog that hasn’t barked”.
No member of Congress has tabled impeachment articles, and senior Republicans remain united behind the president. The White House dismissed the files as a “hoax”. Spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said Democrats were “desperately trying to distract from their shutdown defeat”.
Online wagering nonetheless shifted sharply. Polymarket contracts on a Trump impeachment climbed from 5 cents to 15 cents on the dollar between Wednesday and Friday, implying a three-fold increase in perceived probability.
CNN polling analyst Harry Enten said the Epstein issue is “the president’s worst by far”. While 87% of Republicans approve of Mr Trump’s overall performance, only 45% back his handling of questions surrounding Epstein, according to the network’s latest survey.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey, said the arithmetic depends on the 2026 mid-term elections. “If the GOP loses the House, Democrats will start a third impeachment; if they also lose the Senate, that process will be completed,” he told Newsweek.
A bipartisan petition to force a floor vote on releasing all federal Epstein records passed the 218-signature threshold on Wednesday. The House is expected to vote on the measure shortly.
Mr Trump, impeached and acquitted twice during his first term, has denied any wrongdoing and says his acquaintance with Epstein ended in the early 2000s.